Design tips

Define the Problem with Evidence

A Problem Tree method to separate symptoms from root causes and write a defensible problem statement.

Abayomi Ogundipe

Abayomi Ogundipe

2 min read
Define the Problem with Evidence

Most project plans start with a solution. That is why they feel shaky later. If the problem is unclear, every other step inherits the confusion.

I built Lesson 1 to help you name the real problem with evidence, not assumptions. The lesson is self-paced, so you can work through it with one live project and come back to it when you need to.

What this lesson covers

  • How to separate symptoms from root causes without losing nuance
  • How to attach evidence to each branch so your statement is credible
  • How to write a clear problem statement your team can reuse

How I suggest using it

Gather evidence

  • Pull in reports, notes, interviews, and observations
  • Write one idea per sticky or line. Keep it short and factual

Build the tree

  • Symptoms at the top, root causes at the bottom
  • Ask why until you stop getting better answers
  • Tag each branch with evidence so the reasoning is traceable

Draft the statement

  • Summarize the core problem in plain language
  • Make it specific enough to guide design choices

What you should have at the end

  • A labeled Problem Tree with symptoms, root causes, and impacts
  • A short problem statement you can use across documents
  • A list of evidence gaps to close in the next phase

Why this matters for the series

This problem statement feeds directly into stakeholder mapping, affinity analysis, Theory of Change, and the logframe. Clear input leads to clean output.

More resources: Lesson 1: Problem Tree Analysis.

Diagram

Three-Layer Problem Tree Structure

Core framework visualization.

graph TB subgraph Effects["🌿 EFFECTS (Branches)
What happens because the problem exists?"] E1["Short-term Effects
Immediate consequences
(0-6 months)"] E2["Medium-term Effects
Developing impacts
(6 months - 2 years)"] E3["Long-term Effects
Lasting consequences
(2+ years)"] end CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM (Trunk)
The central issue your project addresses

• Affects specific population
• In defined context
• Observable & measurable
• Urgent"] subgraph RootCauses["🌱 ROOT CAUSES (Roots)
Why does the problem exist?"] RC1["Level 1: Direct Causes
Immediate factors"] RC2["Level 2: Underlying Causes
Why direct causes exist"] RC3["Level 3: Structural Causes
Systems & conditions"] end CP --> E1 CP --> E2 CP --> E3 RC1 --> CP RC2 --> RC1 RC3 --> RC2 style Effects fill:#72B043,stroke:#007F4E,color:#fff style E1 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A style E2 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A style E3 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A style CP fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px style RootCauses fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff style RC1 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A style RC2 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A style RC3 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A